We are naturally tribal creatures, and we love surrounding ourselves with people who agree with us. Duke calls this an "affirmation club." To make better decisions, you must build a .
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Duke herself would never give a 100% probability. But she might say 75% – because the book provides tools that actively reduce common cognitive biases. The remaining 25% accounts for personal variance: some readers already think probabilistically; others won’t do the exercises. We are naturally tribal creatures, and we love